Al-Shabaab Remains a Major Security Threat as Somalia Faces Political Divisions

MOGADISHU — Somalia continues to face a serious security challenge from Al-Shabaab, as the al-Qaeda-linked militant group maintains its ability to carry out attacks despite sustained military operations by Somali forces and their international partners.

Human Rights Watch has reported that Al-Shabaab continued to conduct numerous indiscriminate and targeted attacks against civilians, highlighting the group’s persistent threat to Somalia’s population and security.

The security situation remains particularly concerning as Somalia faces growing political tensions between the federal government and several federal member states. Analysts warn that political fragmentation and disputes over power-sharing could weaken the country’s ability to coordinate an effective response to the militant group.

A recent assessment by the International Crisis Group said Al-Shabaab made significant advances during 2025, reversing some of the territorial gains achieved by government forces in previous years. The group has also maintained the ability to conduct attacks and challenge government positions.

The danger has remained visible in 2026. Somali authorities have continued to announce military operations against Al-Shabaab, including operations supported by international airstrikes. In March, Somali forces reported killing dozens of Al-Shabaab fighters in operations in Middle Juba and Lower Shabelle.

More recently, security concerns have extended to major population centers. Reports in August indicated that Al-Shabaab fighters were allegedly conducting nighttime patrols around parts of the outskirts of Mogadishu, while residents reported continuing attacks and roadside explosions in some areas.

The group has also demonstrated its ability to exploit weaknesses in state authority. Somalia’s prolonged political disputes have created an additional layer of instability at a time when the country is already undergoing a difficult security transition and gradually assuming greater responsibility for its own security from international forces.

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia is simultaneously facing pressure as responsibility for security operations increasingly shifts toward Somali forces. Analysts have warned that operational constraints and political divisions could complicate the transition.

For the federal government, the challenge is therefore twofold: defeating an entrenched militant organization while maintaining political cooperation with Somalia’s federal states.

Unless Mogadishu succeeds in reducing political tensions and strengthening coordination among federal and regional security forces, Al-Shabaab could continue to exploit gaps in state authority and political fragmentation.

The continuing insurgency is a reminder that Somalia’s security crisis cannot be addressed through military operations alone. Political unity, effective institutions and cooperation between the federal government and regional administrations will be crucial if Mogadishu is to prevent Al-Shabaab from regaining further influence and territory.