Somalia’s Political Crisis Deepens as Puntland and Jubaland Walk Away from Election Talks


MOGADISHU — Somalia’s political divisions are deepening as disagreements between the Federal Government and powerful regional states threaten to undermine efforts to reach consensus on the country’s electoral future.

The latest setback came in July, when delegations from Puntland and Jubaland withdrew from political talks in Mogadishu after failing to reach an agreement with the federal government on key electoral and political issues. The second round of negotiations ended without a settlement, raising fresh concerns about Somalia’s ability to organize a broadly accepted electoral process.

At the heart of the dispute is the future of Somalia’s electoral system and the balance of power between the federal government and the country’s federal member states. Puntland and Jubaland have opposed several aspects of the government’s proposed constitutional and electoral reforms, arguing that decisions affecting the political future of the country should be based on broad consensus.

The withdrawal of the two states represents a significant blow to attempts to build a unified political position ahead of the next elections. Their absence has highlighted the widening gap between Mogadishu and regional administrations that fear greater federal control could weaken their political and administrative autonomy.

The disagreement is not limited to the electoral system. Relations between Puntland and the federal government have also deteriorated over security arrangements and the authority of Mogadishu to make decisions concerning federal forces operating inside Puntland. In June, Puntland rejected the federal government's appointment of a new commander for the Somali National Army’s 54th Division based in Garowe, further escalating tensions.

Jubaland, meanwhile, has remained closely aligned with the opposition camp in its criticism of the federal government's political agenda. Both regional administrations have repeatedly called for an inclusive political process in which federal states and opposition forces have a meaningful role in determining the country's electoral framework.

International actors have attempted to mediate between the rival sides. Türkiye has played an increasingly visible role in facilitating dialogue, while other international partners have urged Somali political leaders to compromise and avoid unilateral decisions that could further destabilize the country.

The failure of the July talks therefore goes beyond a disagreement over election procedures. It reflects a deeper struggle over who should control Somalia’s political future: a stronger federal government in Mogadishu or a more decentralized federal system in which regional states retain significant autonomy.

With the electoral timetable approaching, continued political fragmentation could create new uncertainty and make it increasingly difficult to organize elections that are accepted by all major political actors.

For Somalia, the challenge is now not simply holding elections, but reaching a political agreement that gives those elections enough legitimacy to prevent another cycle of confrontation between Mogadishu, the federal states and the opposition.

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