Somalia Faces Rising Flood Risk as El Niño Strengthens


MOGADISHU, Somalia — Somalia is preparing for a potentially severe flood season as strengthening El Niño conditions and forecasts of above-normal rainfall raise concerns ahead of the October–December 2026 Deyr rainy season.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that large parts of central and southern Somalia could experience significantly wetter-than-normal conditions. In some areas, the probability of above-normal seasonal rainfall is estimated at as high as 90 percent.

The warning does not mean that widespread flooding is certain. Instead, FAO says the unusually strong rainfall signal provides an important window for authorities and humanitarian organizations to prepare before potential impacts occur.

The Juba and Shabelle river basins are among the areas of particular concern. Heavy rainfall upstream, including in the Ethiopian highlands, could increase river levels and raise the risk of both riverine and flash flooding in vulnerable communities.

The situation is especially challenging because Somalia is still recovering from a prolonged drought. Poor and irregular rainfall during the 2026 Gu season has affected crops, livestock and water resources, leaving many communities vulnerable to another major climate shock.

FAO has urged authorities and humanitarian partners to strengthen early-warning systems, review evacuation routes, identify safe areas and pre-position essential supplies in flood-prone locations.

The agency is also mapping areas at risk and monitoring the Juba and Shabelle rivers to provide more detailed warnings as the Deyr season approaches.

Somalia has experienced devastating floods during previous strong rainy seasons. FAO notes that the years 1997 and 2023 provide important historical examples of severe Deyr flooding, although the agency stresses that these years should not be interpreted as predictions that 2026 will experience the same level of flooding.

For Somalia, the coming rainy season therefore presents a complex challenge: rainfall could help replenish water sources, improve pasture and support agricultural recovery after drought, but excessive rainfall could also cause flooding, displacement and damage to livelihoods.

With the Deyr season approaching, humanitarian agencies are emphasizing early preparedness and anticipatory action to reduce the potential impact on communities already facing food insecurity and displacement.

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